$100 Billion Nonsense
I read a magazine article recently that criticized the methods used to derive estimates on the annual cost of gun violence in America. I did a little poking around and, sure enough, the Brady Campaign (formerly Handgun Control, Inc.) cites an estimate: $100 billion annually. Not surprisingly, this number is very bogus. Read an more detailed critique here.
The total consists of several pieces. There's $2 billion in direct medical costs, which is reasonable. I don't have any reason to quibble over that figure.
Then there's $3-$8 billion in direct and indirect economic costs. These include loss of income by people who have been shot, home security systems for people in high crime areas, the cost of moving out of high crime areas to the suburbs, etc. I do have some problem with this because it would attribute all the indirect economic costs solely to gun crime. Did someone get a security system because drug dealers shoot each other on street corners or did that person get it because a neighbor's house was broken into by a crack addict? Did a family move to the suburbs because of specific gun murders, the broader problem of crime or the terrible schools in the area? I'd guess the indirect costs may be overstated.
So up to this point we have $5-$10 billion in costs. Where did the remaining $90-$95 billion come from?
Out of thin air, of course. It turns out the researchers (not affiliated with the former Handgun Control, Inc.) got a little too fancy. They arranged for a public opinion survey which asked how much of a tax increase would you pay for to achieve a 30% drop in gun violence. They totaled up the dollar figure and the calculated the total for a 100% drop in gun violence based on what people would pay for a 30% drop. It's simple high school algebra but it's completely bogus as an estimate for the cost of gun violence.
Sorry guys. Nice try. That's complete nonsense. A theoretical dollar figure for a nonexistent and undefined program to reduce gun violence by 30%, extended to a mostly likely impossible figure of 100%, based on an unlikely-to-be-true linear cost projection where not a single dollar has actually been spent, proposed or budgeted does not make for a convincing estimate of the cost of gun violence.
What did Mark Twain say? There's lies, damn lies and statistics.